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FOUR PREFERABLE PICTURES OF SAI IN THE BANI WORLD

"Change is the only constant."

Heraclitus

The beginning quote of Heraclitus, the Greek Philosopher, reflects today's global situation. Since 2020 the Covid-19 pandemic has shaped our world rapidly. The pandemic still reveals the chaos under the hard uncontrollable. It represented the VUCA world as volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. The VUCA concept was initiated in the mid-80s by Professor Warren Bennis, who created the VUCA term in his book "Leaders: The strategies for taking charges." The cold war shaped this idea.

For more than forty years, global changes continuously, from the collapse of the Berlin wall to the rise of globalization, led to the digital revolution until the 21st pandemic as Covid-19. The disruption of digital and Covid-19 represents the twin disruption, which showed the speed of changes. It is not a normal change. Hence, we familiarize ourselves with the new buzzwords like the new normal and the next normal.

In 2018, futurist Jamais Cascio proposed a new concept to replace the VUCA. He called the BANI. The BANI is the acronym for brittle, anxious, non-linear, and incomprehensible. Nevertheless, the BANI still explains the chaotic world, which is difficult to foresee and unpredictable. Therefore, we must understand the new framework to prepare for the incomprehensible world.

Brittle explains that we are vulnerable to calamity at any time and built on fragile foundations that can collapse overnight. Anxious means the feeling of being helpless and unable to make a decision. However, the Non-linearity reveals that we live in a world whose events seem disconnected and disproportionate. Lastly, the incomprehensible showed that the available excess information creates its consequences.

Figure 1: Jamais Cascio is the futurist who coined the BANI term

Even though we cannot avoid the BANI world, we can prepare ourselves to deal with the BANI context. For example, in our audit community, we could improve our knowledge by sharing experiences and concrete ideas based on the academic framework. Therefore, in 2022 the ASEANSAI Knowledge Sharing Committee (KSC) initiated Cooperative research under the topic of SAI Independence in ASEAN countries: Implementing Foresight Tools for preferable future. This research project has been achieved through wonderful collaboration among six SAIs in ASEANSAI: SAI Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Malaysia as the Chair of ASEANSAI KSC, Vietnam, also Thailand as the project leader.

This study set the simple research question of implementing the foresight approach to improving SAI Independence in ASEAN. The research team implemented the foresight tools to analyze and foresee the preparation of SAI independence in the VUCA world. The study designed four scenarios, which reflected the relationship between SAI independence and responding SAI in the VUCA context.

The challenging question is how to prepare SAI for the BANI world. The research found that SAI should accept the speed of change. Likewise, SAI should prepare the organization to respond to the BANI context (please see figure 2).

Figure 2 Infographic shows SAI and preparation for the BANI world.

However, the result could suggest four preferable futures, which SAI should consider to exist in the BANI context. (Please see figure 3).

Figure 3: Four Preferable Pictures of SAI in the BANI World

The first picture shows SAI should focus on the Standard SAI. The reason is that SAI should follow the INTOSAI Principles like the Lima Declaration 1977 or INTOSAI-P 1, Mexico Declaration 2007 or INTOSAI-P-10, also INTOSAI P-12 about the value and benefit of SAI for citizens. In the meantime, SAI should follow the ISSAI and implement the Guidances introduced by INTOSAI. The outcome of standard SAI is to create public trust.

The second one represents SAI should play the Green SAI. The SDG concept, green economy, and recovery will be the mainstream approach in the future. SAI should reskill and upskill the auditors to recognize these ideas. SAI should be responsive SAI to alert the global issues, not only the environmental problems but also the pandemic and all disasters relevant to their lives.

The third image is the Smart SAI. Again, after the pandemic, the research found that digital transformation is the key word to transform the traditional SAI into digital SAI. Most SAIs invest in digital infrastructures and implement remote audits to replace the conventional method. The concept of 5ABCDI or 5G, AI, Blockchain, Cyber Security, Data Analytics, and the Internet of Things will become the real tools of auditors.

For the last picture, SAI should be the Foresight SAI. But, unfortunately, foresight is not the forecast. Foresight means to design the future of everything, which SAI could give future pictures for their stakeholders about the future of public resources. SAI should explain how to deal with the scarcity of public resources and utilize them as sustainability for the next generation.

Dr. Sutthi Suntharanurak
Director of International Affairs Office

The researcher in the area of anti-corruption studies, public sector auditing, and SDG issues.
Presently, he is preparing the research about the role of SAI in the BANI world.

State Audit Office of the Kingdom of Thailand

For further information, please contact
sutthisun@gmail.com

22 Dec 2022